Baseball Is Back

After a 5-month break, baseball returns to action with an opening game tonight and Opening Day tomorrow.  I pride myself in making bad predictions, so here is my attempt at breaking down the NL Central this year:

Cubs.  I see the Cubbies staying on top of the division, even after their postseason failures.  They've got too much offense, too much good pitching, and enough veterans to be able to handle the ups and downs of the season.  They do have the potential to collapse if their pitchers (read: Zambrano, Harden) get injured or their new OF Milton Bradley becomes the clubhouse cancer in Chicago he has been elsewhere.  But I don't see it and I have the Cubs down for 95 wins this year.

Cardinals.  Last year, the Cardinals surprised a lot of people by being over .500 and competing for the wild-card.  I think they're going to surprise people this year, with having Chris Carpenter back and having a closer who can get the done (I believe Jason Motte will do well).  They still have some holes in their lineup, but Mr. Pujols is good enough to carry their offense.  Expect the Cards to be in the wild-card hunt the whole year.  If they stay healthy and the Cubs don't, I could see the Cards winning the division.

Brewers.  Oh, my dear Brewers.  Last year was so amazing.  I'd love to believe they will follow up their postseason appearance with a repeat performance, but I don't see it.  Yvonni Gallardo should have a breakout season if he stays healthy and Ryan Braun should be able to compete for the MVP.  But they've got too many holes in the pitching staff, especially the bullpen.  They've got a great offense, and that will help them win a lot of games, but not enough to get in the postseason.  My forecast has them finishing a few games over .500.

Reds.  Everybody loves the Reds this year and lots of people are picking them as a sleeper team in the NL.  I don't see it.  Their manager (Dusty Baker) has only had success with veteran teams and they have the same nucleus as last year and they were way below .500.  I'd be surprised if the Reds win 80 games.

Astros.  The Astros are getting old, they have one great pitcher (Roy Oswalt), two great bats (Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman), and that's about it.  Pencil the Astros down for 70 wins and thank me later.

Pirates.  They haven't been good for a long time.  I don't think they'll start being good this year.  Be happy with 70 wins, Pittsburgh fans.

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And here are my overall predictions for who will make the playoffs and win it all:

American League

Division Winners: Rays, Athletics, Indians

Wild-card Winner: Yankees

Championship Series: Yankees over the Rays

National League

Division Winners: Cubs, Dodgers, Mets

Wild-card Winner: Cardinals

Championship Series: Mets over the Dodgers

World Series

I've got the Mets over the Yankees in a 7-game classic.